Exploring the Relationship between Stochastic Events and Patterns of International Tourism in Kenya

Authors

  • Nancy K. Momanyi Kisii University, Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Kisii, Kenya
  • George O. Obonyo Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management
  • Scholastica A. Odhiambo Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management
  • Billy A. Wadongo Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47672/jht.1546

Keywords:

International Tourism, Change Point Detection, Pandemics, Political Instability, Natural Disaster

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this research was to investigate the fluctuations in international tourist arrivals in Kenya and identify the underlying factors contributing to these trends. The study aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of stochastic events on tourist arrivals.

Methodology: The research focused on international tourist arrivals in Kenya across seven geographical areas. It utilized annual time series data from 1980 to 2020 and examined various variables, including tourism arrivals, terrorism, political instability, conferences, and natural disasters. Descriptive statistics, the Kruskal-Wallis test, Lepage change point detection, and a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) with Granger causality tests were employed to analyze the data.

Findings: The findings revealed significant fluctuations in preferred destinations, source markets, purpose of visits, and length of stay among international tourists in Kenya over the study period. Major stochastic events were observed to coincide with significant changes in net arrivals, source markets, or destinations. Notably, terrorism, conferences, and the combined impact of all factors had a significant influence on net arrivals. Political instability, pandemics, and natural disasters were also found to affect international tourism arrivals.

Recommendations: Based on the results, policymakers are advised to prioritize safety and security measures to mitigate the adverse effects of pandemics and political instability on the tourism industry in Kenya. Additionally, the study recommends the development of targeted marketing strategies to attract resilient source markets. Furthermore, promoting sustainable tourism practices is essential to mitigate the long-term impact of negative events on the industry. These recommendations aim to enhance the resilience and growth of the tourism sector in Kenya.

 

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Author Biographies

Nancy K. Momanyi, Kisii University, Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Kisii, Kenya

 

 

George O. Obonyo, Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management

 

 

Scholastica A. Odhiambo, Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management

 

 

Billy A. Wadongo, Maseno University, Department of Ecotourism and Hospitality Management

 

 

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Published

2023-08-02

How to Cite

Momanyi, N. ., Obonyo, G. ., Odhiambo, S. ., & Wadongo, B. . (2023). Exploring the Relationship between Stochastic Events and Patterns of International Tourism in Kenya. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 3(2), 51–75. https://doi.org/10.47672/jht.1546

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2023 Nancy K. Momanyi, George O. Obonyo, Scholastica A. Odhiambo, Billy A. Wadongo

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