Time Series Analysis of Unemployment Rates and Its Determinants in the United States
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47672/ajsas.1995Keywords:
Time Series Analysis, Unemployment Rates, Determinants, United StatesAbstract
Purpose: The aim of the study was to assess time series analysis of unemployment rates and its determinants in the United States.
Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries.
Findings: The study revealed that there is a clear cyclical pattern in unemployment rates, indicating a strong correlation with economic cycles. During periods of economic expansion, unemployment tends to decrease, while it rises during economic downturns. However, the magnitude and duration of these fluctuations vary across different economies and regions.
Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: Business cycle theory, Philips curve theory and structural unemployment theory may be used to anchor future studies on assessing the time series analysis of unemployment rates and its determinants in the United States. Policymakers should adopt adaptive strategies that acknowledge the dynamic nature of the relationships identified in the time series analyses. Policymakers should consider international collaboration to address the global influences on domestic unemployment rates.
Downloads
References
REFERENCES
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work. NBER Working Paper No. 24196. DOI: [10.3386/w24196] (https://doi.org/10.3386/w24196)
Ackah, C., & Aryeetey, E. (2018). The Role of Industrialisation in Employment Generation and Poverty Reduction: A Preliminary Assessment. African Development Review, 30(3), 263-275. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12322] (https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12322)
Ball, L., & Mankiw, N. G. (2018). The Phillips Curve: Dead or Alive? National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI: [10.3386/w25547] (https://doi.org/10.3386/w25547)
Blanchard, O. J., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. The American Economic Review, 103(3), 117-120.
Bonelli, R., & Marchionni, M. (2020). The Effect of Labor Market Regulations on Employment in Argentina. Latin American Journal of Economics, 57(1), 95-124. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.7764/LAJE.57.1.95] (https://doi.org/10.7764/LAJE.57.1.95)
Campos-Vazquez, R. M., & Villagomez, E. (2017). Labor market consequences of academic and non-academic labor market experience early in professional life: The Mexican case. Journal of Comparative Economics, 45(3), 582-595. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2017.02.004] (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2017.02.004)
Diagne, A., & Zonon, H. R. (2019). Impact of education on employment in Senegal: Do skills mismatch and gender matter?. Journal of Development Studies, 55(4), 569-586. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2018.1460841] (https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2018.1460841)
Fourie, C., & Rossouw, R. (2018). Does Education and Training Impact on Youth Unemployment in South Africa? South African Journal of Economics, 86(4), 499-515. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12196] (https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12196)
Fujita, S., & Ramey, G. (2020). The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular, and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications. NBER Working Paper No. 27608. DOI: [10.3386/w27608](https://doi.org/10.3386/w27608)
Gebreeyesus, M., & Iizuka, M. (2019). Industrialisation as an engine of structural transformation: Evidence from Ethiopia. World Development, 117, 222-235. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.003](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.003)
Kibet, L. K., & Kinyanjui, K. M. (2018). Skills development and youth employment in Kenya. International Journal of Social Economics, 45(3), 438-452. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-09-2016-0215] (https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-09-2016-0215)
Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Principles of Economics (7th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Ogunrinola, I. O., Falola, H. O., & Olowookere, E. I. (2021). Entrepreneurship Education and Youth Unemployment in Nigeria. African Development Review, 33(1), 74-86. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12414] (https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12414)
Okafor, G. O. (2020). Entrepreneurship education and unemployment in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 8(1), 62-76. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.35940/ijecm.B1092.0881S120] (https://doi.org/10.35940/ijecm.B1092.0881S120)
Oliveira, D. B., & Silva, L. G. (2018). Does education really impact unemployment? An empirical analysis in Brazil. International Journal of Manpower, 39(7), 877-895. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-05-2018-0172] (https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-05-2018-0172)
Phelps, E. S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time. Economica, 34(135), 254-281.
Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283-299.
Ridho, H., & Pramono, H. (2019). The Relationship between Education and Unemployment in Indonesia: Evidence from Panel Data. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 36(3), 379-396. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1353/seae.2019.0024] (https://doi.org/10.1353/seae.2019.0024)
Tansel, A. (2015). Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Turkey: A Socio-Economic Perspective. International Labour Review, 154(2), 237-258. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1564-913X.2015.00023.x] (https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1564-913X.2015.00023.x)
Tregenna, F., & Tseng, Y. P. (2019). The industrialization-unemployment nexus in South Africa. Oxford Development Studies, 47(3), 328-349. DOI: [https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2019.1609277] (https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2019.1609277)
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Charlie Robinson
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
